Lymph Node Ratio Improves Prediction of Overall Survival in Esophageal Cancer Patients Receiving Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy: A National Cancer Database Analysis

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to propose a revised ypN (r-ypN) classification based on lymph node ratio (LNR) and to examine its prognostic value in postneoadjuvant esophageal cancer.

Background: A new postneoadjuvant pathologic (ypTNM) staging classification has been introduced for esophageal cancer. However, the ypN classification currently defined by the number of positive lymph nodes is influenced by the extent of lymphadenectomy.

Methods: Data on 7195 esophageal cancer patients receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiation were extracted from the National Cancer Database (NCDB). Four r-ypN stages were defined by 3 LNR thresholds (0%, 10%, and 20% using X-tile software). A revised ypTNM (r-ypTNM) classification was developed by solely changing N categories. Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards models were used for survival analyses. Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Harrell's concordance index ( C -index) were used to compare the predictive performance of the current and the revised classification. External validation was performed using an independent cohort from the NEOCRTEC5010 clinical trial.

Results: Both ypN ( P <0.001) and r-ypN ( P <0.001) were independent prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) for esophageal cancer patients. Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated a better discrimination with r-ypN than ypN categories. Within each ypN category (except ypN3), OS was significantly different comparing r-ypN strata; however, there were no differences between ypN strata within each r-ypN category (except r-ypN3). r-ypN (AIC: 60752 vs 60782; C -index: 0.591 vs 0.587) and r-ypTNM (AIC: 60623 vs 60628; C -index: 0.613 vs 0.610) showed better predictive performance than the current staging system, with a lower AIC (better calibration) and higher C -index (improved discrimination). This advantage was also confirmed by external validation using the NEOCRTEC5010 cohort.

Conclusions: LNR showed better performance than ypN in predicting OS of esophageal cancer patients after neoadjuvant chemoradiation and may be an improvement on the current staging system.