Sacroiliitis at diagnosis as a protective predictor against disease flare after stopping medication: outcomes of a Southeast Asian enthesitis-related arthritis (ERA) longitudinal cohort

Abstract

Objectives: To assess short- and long-term outcomes of ERA in a large monocentric cohort in Singapore.

Methods: Children diagnosed with ERA according to ILAR criteria from 2002 to 2021 were recruited. Nonparametric statistics were used to describe the data. Outcomes were defined according to modified Wallace criteria, and probabilities and predictors were determined using Kaplan-Meier survival and logistic regression analyses.

Results: One hundred fifty-one ERA patients (male 86%; Chinese 81%) were included. The median age at onset was 11.9 years (IQR: 9.4-13.9), and disease duration was 5.3 years (IQR: 2.9-8.4). At diagnosis, 39% of the patients had sacroiliitis. HLA-B27 was positive in 83%, and biologics were used in 72% of the patients. Clinical inactive disease (CID) was achieved in 92% of the patients, of which 27% achieved within 6 months. Sacroiliitis at diagnosis is an unfavorable predictor of early CID at 6 months. Medication was discontinued in one-third of the patients. Favorable predictor of medication withdrawal includes male gender, while unfavorable predictors include positive HLA-B27 and ANA. Two-thirds of the patients with CID had at least one disease flare. Sacroiliitis at diagnosis is a protective predictor of flare after stopping medication.

Conclusion: Despite a high proportion of ERA patients achieving CID, only one-third could stop medication with high rates of disease flare. Unfavorable predictors include older age at onset, HLA-B27, and ANA positivity. While sacroiliitis at diagnosis is a negative predictor of CID at 6 months, it is associated with less disease flare after discontinuing medication.

Keywords: Enthesitis-related arthritis; Juvenile idiopathic arthritis; Outcomes; Predictors; Singapore.