Exploring the impact of air pollution on COVID-19 admitted cases: Evidence from vector error correction model (VECM) approach in explaining the relationship between air pollutants towards COVID-19 cases in Kuwait

Abstract

In urban areas, air pollution is one of the most serious global environmental issues. Using time-series approaches, this study looked into the validity of the relationship between air pollution and COVID-19 hospitalization. This time series research was carried out in the state of Kuwait; stationarity test, cointegration test, Granger causality and stability test, and test on multivariate time-series using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) technique. The findings reveal that the concentration rate of air pollutants ( ${\text{O}}_3$ , ${\text{SO}}_2$ , ${\text{NO}}_2$ , $\text{CO}$ , and ${\text{PM}}_{10}$ ) has an effect on COVID-19 admitted cases via Granger-cause. The Granger causation test shows that the concentration rate of air pollutants ( ${\text{O}}_3$ , ${\text{PM}}_{10}$ , ${\text{NO}}_2$ , temperature and wind speed) influences and predicts the COVID-19 admitted cases. The findings suggest that sulfur dioxide ( ${\text{SO}}_2$ ), ${\text{NO}}_2$ , temperature, and wind speed induce an increase in COVID-19 admitted cases in the short term according to VECM analysis. The evidence of a positive long-run association between COVID-19 admitted cases and environmental air pollution might be shown in the cointegration test and the VECM. There is an affirmation that the usage of air pollutants ( ${\text{O}}_3$ , ${\text{SO}}_2$ , ${\text{NO}}_2$ , $\text{CO}$ , and ${\text{PM}}_{10}$ ) has a significant impact on COVID-19-admitted cases' prediction and its explained about 24% of increasing COVID-19 admitted cases in Kuwait.

Keywords: Air pollution; COVID-19; Cointegration; Kuwait; Long-run relationship.