Estimating the basic reproduction number from noisy daily data

Abstract

In this paper, we propose an easy to implement generalized linear models (GLM) methodology for estimating the basic reproduction number, R₀, a major epidemic parameter for assessing the transmissibility of an infection. Our approach rests on well known qualitative properties of the classical SIR and SEIR systems for large populations. Moreover, we assume that information at the individual network level is not available. In inference we consider non homogeneous Poisson observation processes and mainly concentrate on epidemics that spread through a completely susceptible population. Further, we examine the performance of the estimator under various scenarios of relevance in practice, like partially observed data. We perform a detailed simulation study and illustrate our approach on Covid-19 Canadian data sets. Finally, we present extensions of our methodology and discuss its merits and practical limitations, in particular the challenges in estimating R₀ when mitigation measures are applied.

Keywords: Basic reproduction number; Estimation; GLM; Non homogeneous Poisson process; SIR and SEIR models.