Machine Learning Techniques Differentiate Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis From Acute Cholangitis in Patients With Systemic Inflammation and Elevated Liver Enzymes

Abstract

Objective: To develop machine learning algorithms (MLAs) that can differentiate patients with acute cholangitis (AC) and alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) using simple laboratory variables.

Methods: A study was conducted of 459 adult patients admitted to Mayo Clinic, Rochester, with AH (n=265) or AC (n=194) from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2019. Ten laboratory variables (white blood cell count, hemoglobin, mean corpuscular volume, platelet count, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, albumin) were collected as input variables. Eight supervised MLAs (decision tree, naive Bayes, logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, artificial neural networks, random forest, gradient boosting) were trained and tested for classification of AC vs AH. External validation was performed with patients with AC (n=213) and AH (n=92) from the MIMIC-III database. A feature selection strategy was used to choose the best 5-variable combination. There were 143 physicians who took an online quiz to distinguish AC from AH using the same 10 laboratory variables alone.

Results: The MLAs demonstrated excellent performances with accuracies up to 0.932 and area under the curve (AUC) up to 0.986. In external validation, the MLAs showed comparable accuracy up to 0.909 and AUC up to 0.970. Feature selection in terms of information-theoretic measures was effective, and the choice of the best 5-variable subset produced high performance with an AUC up to 0.994. Physicians did worse, with mean accuracy of 0.790.

Conclusion: Using a few routine laboratory variables, MLAs can differentiate patients with AC and AH and may serve valuable adjunctive roles in cases of diagnostic uncertainty.