Negative predictive value of procalcitonin to rule out bacterial respiratory co-infection in critical covid-19 patients

J Infect. 2022 Oct;85(4):374-381. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2022.06.024. Epub 2022 Jun 30.

Abstract

Background: Procalcitonin (PCT) and C-Reactive Protein (CRP) are useful biomarkers to differentiate bacterial from viral or fungal infections, although the association between them and co-infection or mortality in COVID-19 remains unclear.

Methods: The study represents a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted for COVID-19 pneumonia to 84 ICUs from ten countries between (March 2020-January 2021). Primary outcome was to determine whether PCT or CRP at admission could predict community-acquired bacterial respiratory co-infection (BC) and its added clinical value by determining the best discriminating cut-off values. Secondary outcome was to investigate its association with mortality. To evaluate the main outcome, a binary logistic regression was performed. The area under the curve evaluated diagnostic performance for BC prediction.

Results: 4635 patients were included, 7.6% fulfilled BC diagnosis. PCT (0.25[IQR 0.1-0.7] versus 0.20[IQR 0.1-0.5]ng/mL, p<0.001) and CRP (14.8[IQR 8.2-23.8] versus 13.3 [7-21.7]mg/dL, p=0.01) were higher in BC group. Neither PCT nor CRP were independently associated with BC and both had a poor ability to predict BC (AUC for PCT 0.56, for CRP 0.54). Baseline values of PCT<0.3ng/mL, could be helpful to rule out BC (negative predictive value 91.1%) and PCT≥0.50ng/mL was associated with ICU mortality (OR 1.5,p<0.001).

Conclusions: These biomarkers at ICU admission led to a poor ability to predict BC among patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Baseline values of PCT<0.3ng/mL may be useful to rule out BC, providing clinicians a valuable tool to guide antibiotic stewardship and allowing the unjustified overuse of antibiotics observed during the pandemic, additionally PCT≥0.50ng/mL might predict worsening outcomes.

Keywords: Bacterial co-infection; C-reactive protein; Covid-19 pneumonia; Mortality; Procalcitonin.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Bacterial Infections* / diagnosis
  • Biomarkers
  • C-Reactive Protein / analysis
  • COVID-19* / diagnosis
  • Coinfection* / diagnosis
  • Humans
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Procalcitonin*
  • ROC Curve
  • Respiratory Tract Infections*
  • Retrospective Studies

Substances

  • Biomarkers
  • Procalcitonin
  • C-Reactive Protein