Estimating the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on US SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first year of the pandemic

N A Duncan; G F L'Her; A G Osborne; S L Sawyer; M R Deinert

doi:10.1098/rsos.210875

Estimating the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on US SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first year of the pandemic

R Soc Open Sci. 2022 Jun 29;9(6):210875. doi: 10.1098/rsos.210875. eCollection 2022 Jun.

Authors

N A Duncan¹, G F L'Her¹, A G Osborne¹, S L Sawyer², M R Deinert¹

Affiliations

¹ Mechanical Engineering, The Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO 10996, USA.
² Molecular Biology, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2019 as a zoonotic infection of humans, and proceeded to cause a worldwide pandemic of historic magnitude. Here, we use a simple epidemiological model and consider the full range of initial estimates from published studies for infection and recovery rates, seasonality, changes in mobility, the effectiveness of masks and the fraction of people wearing them. Monte Carlo simulations are used to simulate the progression of possible pandemics and we show a match for the real progression of the pandemic during 2020 with an R ² of 0.91. The results show that the combination of masks and changes in mobility avoided approximately 248.3 million (σ = 31.2 million) infections in the US before vaccinations became available.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; epidemic modelling; non-pharmacological intervention.

Associated data

figshare/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.6049249

Abstract

Associated data

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