Forecasting Stock Price Trends by Analyzing Economic Reports With Analyst Profiles

Abstract

This article proposes a methodology to forecast the movements of analysts' estimated net income and stock prices using analyst profiles. Our methodology is based on applying natural language processing and neural networks in the context of analyst reports. First, we apply the proposed method to extract opinion sentences from the analyst report while classifying the remaining parts as non-opinion sentences. Then, we employ the proposed method to forecast the movements of analysts' estimated net income and stock price by inputting the opinion and non-opinion sentences into separate neural networks. In addition to analyst reports, we input analyst profiles to the networks. As analyst profiles, we used the name of an analyst, the securities company to which the analyst belongs, the sector which the analyst covers, and the analyst ranking. Consequently, we obtain an indication that the analyst profile effectively improves the model forecasts. However, classifying analyst reports into opinion and non-opinion sentences is insignificant for the forecasts.

Keywords: BERT; financial report; net income; profile; stock prediction; text mining.