Advancing prediction of emerging contaminants in a tropical reservoir with general water quality indicators based on a hybrid process and data-driven approach

Abstract

Monitoring and predicting the occurrence and dynamic distributions of emerging contaminants (ECs) in the aquatic environment has always been a great challenge. This study aims to explore the potential of fully utilizing the advantages of combining traditional process-based models (PBMs) and data-driven models (DDMs) with general water quality indicators in terms of improving the accuracy and efficiency of predicting ECs in aquatic ecosystems. Two representative ECs, namely Bisphenol A (BPA) and N, N-diethyltoluamide (DEET), in a tropical reservoir were chosen for this study. A total of 36 DDMs based on different input datasets using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Random Forests (RF) were examined in three case studies. The models were applied in prognosis validation based on easily accessible data on water quality indicators. Our results revealed that all the models yielded good fits when compared to the observed data. These new insights into the advantages using the combination of traditional PBMs and DDMs with general water quality datasets help to overcome the constraints in terms of model accuracy and efficiency as well as technical and budget limitations due to monitoring surveys and laboratory experiments in the study of fate and transport of ECs in aquatic environments.

Keywords: Data-driven model; Emerging contaminants; Hybrid model; Process-based model; Water quality indicators.