1-h Glucose During Oral Glucose Tolerance Test Predicts Hyperglycemia Relapse-Free Survival in Obese Black Patients With Hyperglycemic Crises

Abstract

Objective: Approximately 50% of obese Black patients with unprovoked diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) or severe hyperglycemia (SH) at new-onset diabetes achieve near-normoglycemia remission with intensive insulin treatment. Despite the initial near-normoglycemia remission, most DKA/SH individuals develop hyperglycemia relapse after insulin discontinuation. Traditional biomarkers such as normal glucose tolerance at the time of remission were not predictive of hyperglycemia relapse. We tested whether 1-h plasma glucose (1-h PG) at remission predicts hyperglycemia relapse in Black patients with DKA/SH.

Methods: Secondary analysis was performed of two prospective randomized controlled trials in 73 patients with DKA/SH at the safety net hospital with a median follow-up of 408 days. Patients with DKA/SH underwent a 5-point, 2-h 75-g oral glucose tolerance test after hyperglycemia remission. Hyperglycemia relapse is defined by fasting blood glucose (FBG) > 130 mg/dl, random blood glucose (BG) >180 mg/dl, or HbA1c > 7%.

Results: During the median 408 (interquartile range: 110-602) days of follow-up, hyperglycemia relapse occurred in 28 (38.4%) participants. One-hour PG value ≥199 mg/dl discriminates hyperglycemia relapse (sensitivity: 64%; specificity: 71%). Elevated levels of 1-h PG (≥199 mg/dl) were independently associated with hyperglycemia relapse (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.40 [95% CI: 1.04, 5.56]). In a multivariable model with FBG, adding 1-h PG level enhanced the prediction of hyperglycemia relapse, with significant improvements in C-index (Δ: +0.05; p = 0.04), net reclassification improvement (NRI: 48.7%; p = 0.04), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI: 7.8%; p = 0.02) as compared with the addition of 2-h PG (NRI: 20.2%; p = 0.42; IDI: 1.32%; p = 0.41) or HbA1c (NRI: 35.2%; p = 0.143; IDI: 5.8%; p = 0.04).

Conclusion: One-hour PG at the time of remission is a better predictor of hyperglycemia relapse than traditional glycemic markers among obese Black patients presenting with DKA/SH. Testing 1-h PG at insulin discontinuation identifies individuals at high risk of developing hyperglycemia relapse.

Keywords: 1-h and 2-h glucose values; ROC (receiver operating characteristic curve); diabetic ketoacidosis; net reclassification improvement; oral glucose tolerance; stress hyperglycemia.