It is difficult for physicians to identify patients with metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) who are sensitive to local treatment of metastases. Here, we aimed to establish a prognostic model for survival and individualize treatments for patients with metastatic NPC. Data were collated from 240 NPC patients diagnosed with metachronous metastasis between 2006 and 2020 who received palliative chemotherapy with or without local treatment. Multivariable Cox regression was implemented to construct a nomogram which had a concordance index of 0.764 when predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival (OS). We then classified patients according to risk, creating low- and high-risk groups using the nomogram. Differences in OS between the two groups were significant ( P<0.001). In the low-risk group, the OS for patients who received local treatment was longer than those without ( P=0.009). This novel nomogram shows good performance in classifying patients according to risk and may also be a promising tool for determining who responds best to local treatment. Further validation using external center data is warranted.
Keywords: metastasis; nasopharyngeal carcinoma; overall survival; prognostic model; treatment.