Modeling for the Stringency of Lock-Down Policies: Effects of Macroeconomic and Healthcare Variables in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Background: The spread of COVID-19 has been characterized by unprecedented global lock-downs. Although, the extent of containment policies cannot be explained only through epidemic data. Previous studies already focused on the relationship between the economy and healthcare, focusing on the impact of diseases in countries with a precarious economic situation. However, the pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 drew most countries of the world into a precarious economic situation mostly caused by the global and local lock-downs policies.

Methods: A discriminant analysis performed via partial least squares procedure was applied to evaluate the impact of economic and healthcare variables on the containment measures adopted by 39 countries. To collect the input variables (macroeconomic, healthcare, and medical services), we relied on official databases of international organizations, such as The World Bank and WHO.

Results: The stringency lock-down policies could not only be influenced by the epidemical data, but also by previous features of the selected countries, such as economic and healthcare conditions.

Conclusions: Indeed, economic and healthcare variables also contributed to shaping the implemented lock-down policies.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2 pandemic; containment policies; healthcare services; lock-down modeling; socio economic impact.