An efficient nonstandard computer method to solve a compartmental epidemiological model for COVID-19 with vaccination and population migration

Abstract

Background and objective: In this manuscript, we consider a compartmental model to describe the dynamics of propagation of an infectious disease in a human population. The population considers the presence of susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic and symptomatic infected, quarantined, recovered and vaccinated individuals. In turn, the mathematical model considers various mechanisms of interaction between the sub-populations in addition to population migration.

Methods: The steady-state solutions for the disease-free and endemic scenarios are calculated, and the local stability of the equilibium solutions is determined using linear analysis, Descartes' rule of signs and the Routh-Hurwitz criterion. We demonstrate rigorously the existence and uniqueness of non-negative solutions for the mathematical model, and we prove that the system has no periodic solutions using Dulac's criterion. To solve this system, a nonstandard finite-difference method is proposed.

Results: As the main results, we show that the computer method presented in this work is uniquely solvable, and that it preserves the non-negativity of initial approximations. Moreover, the steady-state solutions of the continuous model are also constant solutions of the numerical scheme, and the stability properties of those solutions are likewise preserved in the discrete scenario. Furthermore, we establish the consistency of the scheme and, using a discrete form of Gronwall's inequality, we prove theoretically the stability and the convergence properties of the scheme. For convenience, a Matlab program of our method is provided in the appendix.

Conclusions: The computer method presented in this work is a nonstandard scheme with multiple dynamical and numerical properties. Most of those properties are thoroughly confirmed using computer simulations. Its easy implementation make this numerical approach a useful tool in the investigation on the propagation of infectious diseases. From the theoretical point of view, the present work is one of the few papers in which a nonstandard scheme is fully and rigorously analyzed not only for the dynamical properties, but also for consistently, stability and convergence.

Keywords: Compartmental epidemiological model; Local stability analysis; Non-standard finite-difference scheme; Positivity preservation; Stability and convergence analysis; Steady-state solutions; Vaccination regime and migration.