Speeding up the promotion and application of biofuel ethanol has been a national strategy in China, which in turn has affected changes in the raw material planting structure. This study analyzed the response mechanism of water quality to agriculture land-use changes in a cassava fuel ethanol raw material planting area. The results revealed that an increase in cultivated land and construction land would lead to a rise in the load of TN (total nitrogen) and TP (total phosphorus), while an expansion in forest land and grassland area would reduce the load. As for crop structures, corn would have a remarkable positive impact on TN and TP, while rice and cassava performed in an opposite manner. Furthermore, scenarios under the carbon neutralization policy were carried out to forecast the nonpoint source pollutants based on the quantitative relations coefficients. It was proven that cassava planting was suitable for vigorous fuel ethanol development, but the maximum increase area of cassava should be 126 km2 to ensure economic benefits. Under the change in fuel ethanol policy, this study could provide scientific support for local agriculture land-use management in realizing the carbon neutralization vision and also set a good example for the development of the cassava fuel ethanol industry in other cassava-planting countries.
Keywords: MIKE-SHE; agricultural crop structures; cassava; energy development; nonpoint source pollution.