Optimizing Strategies for Improving Mental Health in Victoria, Australia during the COVID-19 Era: A System Dynamics Modelling Study

Catherine Vacher; Nicholas Ho; Adam Skinner; Jo Robinson; Louise Freebairn; Grace Yeeun Lee; Frank Iorfino; Ante Prodan; Yun Ju C Song; Jo-An Occhipinti; Ian B Hickie

doi:10.3390/ijerph19116470

Optimizing Strategies for Improving Mental Health in Victoria, Australia during the COVID-19 Era: A System Dynamics Modelling Study

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 May 26;19(11):6470. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19116470.

Authors

Catherine Vacher^{1

2}, Nicholas Ho¹, Adam Skinner¹, Jo Robinson^{3

4}, Louise Freebairn^{1

5}, Grace Yeeun Lee¹, Frank Iorfino¹, Ante Prodan^{1

5

6}, Yun Ju C Song¹, Jo-An Occhipinti^{1

5}, Ian B Hickie¹

Affiliations

¹ Brain and Mind Centre, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.
² St Vincent's Clinical School, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.
³ Orygen, Parkville, VIC 3052, Australia.
⁴ Centre for Youth Mental Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3052, Australia.
⁵ Computer Simulation & Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), Sydney, NSW 2021, Australia.
⁶ School of Computer, Data and Mathematical Sciences, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia.

Abstract

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the mental health of populations and highlighted the limitations of mental health care systems. As the trajectory of the pandemic and the economic recovery are still uncertain, decision tools are needed to help evaluate the best interventions to improve mental health outcomes. We developed a system dynamics model that captures causal relationships among population, demographics, post-secondary education, health services, COVID-19 impact, and mental health outcomes. The study was conducted in the Australian state of Victoria. The model was calibrated using historical data and was stratified by age group and by geographic remoteness. Findings demonstrate that the most effective intervention combination includes economic, social, and health sector initiatives. Assertive post-suicide attempt care is the most impactful health sector intervention, but delaying implementation reduces the potency of its impact. Some evidence-based interventions, such as population-wide community awareness campaigns, are projected to worsen mental health outcomes when implemented on their own. Systems modelling offers a powerful decision-support tool to test alternative strategies for improving mental health outcomes in the Victorian context.

Keywords: decision analysis; mental health; systems modelling.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

COVID-19* / epidemiology
Humans
Mental Health*
Pandemics / prevention & control
Victoria / epidemiology

Grants and funding

This research was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Centres of Research Excellence grant (application identifier 1171910). J.R. is supported by an NHMRC Investigator Grant (application identifier GNT2008460). NHMRC had no role in the study design, the data analysis, the interpretation of the results, or the preparation of the manuscript.