Faster indicators of chikungunya incidence using Google searches

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2022 Jun 9;16(6):e0010441. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010441. eCollection 2022 Jun.

Abstract

Chikungunya, a mosquito-borne disease, is a growing threat in Brazil, where over 640,000 cases have been reported since 2017. However, there are often long delays between diagnoses of chikungunya cases and their entry in the national monitoring system, leaving policymakers without the up-to-date case count statistics they need. In contrast, weekly data on Google searches for chikungunya is available with no delay. Here, we analyse whether Google search data can help improve rapid estimates of chikungunya case counts in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We build on a Bayesian approach suitable for data that is subject to long and varied delays, and find that including Google search data reduces both model error and uncertainty. These improvements are largest during epidemics, which are particularly important periods for policymakers. Including Google search data in chikungunya surveillance systems may therefore help policymakers respond to future epidemics more quickly.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Brazil / epidemiology
  • Chikungunya Fever* / epidemiology
  • Chikungunya virus*
  • Incidence
  • Search Engine

Grants and funding

The authors thank the University of Warwick GCRF Accelerator Fund (https://warwick.ac.uk/) and Research England (https://www.ukri.org/councils/research-england/) for support. S.M., T.P. and H.S.M. are also grateful for support provided by The Alan Turing Institute (https://www.turing.ac.uk/) under the EPSRC (https://epsrc.ukri.org/) grant EP/N510129/1 (awards TU/B/000006 and TU/B/000008), and the Office for National Statistics Data Science Campus (https://datasciencecampus.ons.gov.uk/). L.S.B. acknowledges support from FAPERJ (http://www.faperj.br/) grant E-26/201.277/2021 and CNPq (https://www.gov.br/cnpq/) grant 310530/2021-0. C.T.C. acknowledges support from CNPq (https://www.gov.br/cnpq/) grant 305553/2014-3, Fiocruz edital INOVA Produtos 2019 (https://portal.fiocruz.br/programa-inova-fiocruz) grant 6681340495 as well as InfoDengue support from the SVS/Brazilian Ministry of Health (https://www.gov.br/saude/pt-br/composicao/svs). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.