Simulating Pine Wilt Disease Dispersal With an Individual-Based Model Incorporating Individual Movement Patterns of Vector Beetles

Chunlei Xia; Tae-Soo Chon; Fugo Takasu; Won Il Choi; Young-Seuk Park

doi:10.3389/fpls.2022.886867

Simulating Pine Wilt Disease Dispersal With an Individual-Based Model Incorporating Individual Movement Patterns of Vector Beetles

Front Plant Sci. 2022 May 23:13:886867. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2022.886867. eCollection 2022.

Authors

Chunlei Xia¹, Tae-Soo Chon², Fugo Takasu³, Won Il Choi⁴, Young-Seuk Park⁵

Affiliations

¹ Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai, China.
² Ecology and Future Research Institute, Busan, South Korea.
³ Department of Environmental Science, Nara Women's University, Nara, Japan.
⁴ Division of Forest Ecology, National Institute of Forest Science, Seoul, South Korea.
⁵ Department of Biology, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, South Korea.

Abstract

Individual movements of the insect vector pine sawyer beetles were incorporated into an individual-based model (IBM) to elucidate the dispersal of pine wilt disease (PWD) and demonstrate the effects of control practices. The model results were compared with the spatial data of infested pine trees in the Gijang-gun area of Busan, Republic of Korea. Step functions with long- and middle-distance movements of individual beetles effectively established symptomatic and asymptomatic trees for the dispersal of PWD. Pair correlations and pairwise distances were suitable for evaluating PWD dispersal between model results and field data at short and long scales, respectively. The accordance between model and field data was observed in infestation rates at 0.08 and 0.09 and asymptomatic rates at 0.16-0.17 for disease dispersal. Eradication radii longer than 20 m would effectively control PWD dispersal for symptomatic transmission and 20-40 m for asymptomatic transmission. However, the longer eradication radii were more effective at controlling PWD. Therefore, to maximize control effects, a longer radius of at least 40 m is recommended for clear-cutting eradication. The IBM of individual movement patterns provided practical information on interlinking the levels of individuals and populations and could contribute to the monitoring and management of forest pests where individual movement is important for population dispersal.

Keywords: asymptomatic rate; control of pine wilt disease dispersal; dispersal model; dispersal of invasive species; forest management; forest pests.