Objectives: With body mass index (BMI) failing to distinguish the mass of fat from lean, several novel predicted equations for predicted fat mass (FM), predicted lean mass (LM) and predicted per cent fat (PF) were recently developed and validated. Our aim was to explore whether the three novel parameters could better predict diabetes mellitus (DM) than the commonly used obesity indicators, including BMI, waist circumference, hip circumference and waist-hip ratio.
Design: A 15-year prospective cohort was used.
Setting: It was a prospective cohort, consisting of a general Chinese population from 1992 to 2007.
Participants: This cohort enrolled 711 people. People suffering from DM at baseline (n=24) were excluded, and 687 non-diabetics with complete data were included to the analysis.
Primary outcome: New-onset DM.
Results: After the follow-up, 74 (48 men and 26 women) incidences of DM were documented. For men, the adjusted HRs were 1, 5.19 (p=0.003) and 7.67 (p<0.001) across predicted PF tertiles; 1, 2.86 (p=0.029) and 5.60 (p<0.001) across predicted FM tertiles; 1, 1.21 (p=0.646) and 2.27 (p=0.025) across predicted LM tertiles. Predicted FM performed better than other commonly used obesity indicators in discrimination with the highest Harrell's C-statistic among all the body composition parameters. Whereas, for women, none of the three novel parameters was the independent predictor.
Conclusion: Predicted PF, predicted LM and predicted FM could independently predict the risk of DM for men, with predicted FM performing better in discrimination than other commonly used obesity indicators. For women, larger samples were further needed.
Keywords: Diabetes & endocrinology; INTERNAL MEDICINE; Risk management.
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