The Impact of Digital Economy on the Economic Growth and the Development Strategies in the post-COVID-19 Era: Evidence From Countries Along the "Belt and Road"

Abstract

The digital economy is considered as an effective measure to mitigate the negative economic impact of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic. However, few studies evaluated the role of digital economy on the economic growth of countries along the "Belt and Road" and the impact of COVID-19 on their digital industries. This study constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system and applied a panel data regression model to empirically analyze the impact of digital economy on the economic growth of countries along the "Belt and Road" before COVID-19. Then, a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model was used to examine the impact of COVID-19 on their digital industries and trade pattern. Our results show that although there is an obvious regional imbalance in the digital economy development in countries along the "Belt and Road", the digital economy has a significantly positive effect on their economic growth. The main impact mechanism is through promoting industrial structure upgrading, the total employment and restructuring of employment. Furthermore, COVID-19 has generally boosted the demand for the digital industries, and the impact from the demand side is much larger than that from the supply side. Specifically, the digital industries in Armenia, Israel, Latvia and Estonia have shown great growth potential during the epidemic. On the contrast, COVID-19 has brought adverse impacts to the digital industries in Ukraine, Egypt, Turkey, and the Philippines. The development strategies are proposed to bridge the "digital divide" of countries along the "Belt and Road," and to strengthen the driving effect of the digital economy on industrial upgrading, employment and trade in the post-COVID-19 era.

Keywords: COVID-19; countries along the “Belt and Road”; digital economy; economic growth; trade pattern.