An investigation of the relationship among economic growth, agricultural expansion and chemical pollution in Iran through decoupling index analysis

Abstract

Due to the significant role of agricultural chemicals in increasing agricultural production and ensuring food security, the excessive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides has been intensified in Iran. These chemical inputs are important environmental pollutants that threaten human health. In the recent years, in agricultural sector, the balance between the growth of agricultural economy and the spread of pollution in Iran has been one of the major challenges. In this regard, the use of decoupling index to decouple the link between agricultural production and pollution caused by the consumption of chemical inputs, such as fertilizers and pesticides, has been emphasized; Therefore, in the present study, the decoupling index first is calculated in relation to the emission of pollution caused by the use of chemical inputs in the process of agricultural production during the period of 1991-2016 in Iran. Then, by reviewing the existing literature systematically, the factors affecting the decoupling index in the agricultural sector of Iran are evaluated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The results showed that in the recent years, pollution indicators in relation to chemical inputs have not had ideal trends, and despite the further growth of agricultural production, the quality of the environment has experienced a declining trend. The results of the decoupling index related to the use of chemical pesticides and fertilizers in Iran show that during a period of 26-year, only 5 and 4 years of using these inputs have had a sustainable state compared to the production growth; besides, a strong negative decoupling state occurred as the most unsustainable state in relation to chemical fertilizer for 7 years. Moreover, among the factors affecting the decoupling index, the value-added variable of the agricultural sector has had the most positive effect on this index, and thus, in the long run, it increases the level of pollution in the agricultural sector. The variables of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the area under cereal cultivation in the agricultural sector would also increase the decoupling index. Accordingly, adopting effective strategies to improve resource efficiency, planning for the implementation of biotechnological methods, and doing investment for creating green infrastructure in the agricultural sector can be effective in the ideal decoupling of pollution and agricultural economy growth in Iran.

Keywords: ARDL; Agricultural economy; Chemical pollution; Economic growth; Tapio decoupling model.