Background Whether visit-to-visit systolic blood pressure (SBP) variability can predict major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with chronic kidney disease is unclear. Methods and Results We investigated the relationship between SDs of visit-to-visit SBP variability during the first year of enrollment and MACE among 1575 participants from KNOW-CKD (Korean Cohort Study for Outcome in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease). Participants were categorized into 3 groups according to tertiles of visit-to-visit SBP variability (SD). The study end point was MACE, defined as a composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, unstable angina, revascularization, nonfatal stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, or cardiac death. During 6748 patient-years of follow-up (median, 4.2 years), MACE occurred in 64 participants (4.1%). Compared with the lowest tertile of visit-to-visit SBP variability (SD), the hazard ratios (HRs) for the middle and the highest tertile were 1.64 (95% CI, 0.80-3.36) and 2.23 (95% CI, 1.12-4.44), respectively, in a multivariable cause-specific hazard model. In addition, the HR associated with each 5-mm Hg increase in visit-to-visit SBP variability (SD) was 1.21 (95% CI, 1.01-1.45). This association was consistent in sensitivity analyses with 2 additional definitions of SBP variability determined by the coefficient of variation and variation independent of the mean. The corresponding HRs for the middle and highest tertiles were 2.11 (95% CI, 1.03-4.35) and 2.28 (95% CI, 1.12-4.63), respectively, in the analysis with the coefficient of variation and 1.76 (95% CI, 0.87-3.57) and 2.04 (95% CI, 1.03-4.03), respectively, with the variation independent of the mean. Conclusions Higher visit-to-visit SBP variability is associated with an increased risk of MACE in patients with chronic kidney disease. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01630486.
Keywords: blood pressure variability; cardiovascular events; chronic kidney disease.