Enhanced habitat loss of the Himalayan endemic flora driven by warming-forced upslope tree expansion

Abstract

High-elevation trees cannot always reach the thermal treeline, the potential upper range limit set by growing-season temperature. But delineation of the realized upper range limit of trees and quantification of the drivers, which lead to trees being absent from the treeline, is lacking. Here, we used 30 m resolution satellite tree-cover data, validated by more than 0.7 million visual interpretations from Google Earth images, to map the realized range limit of trees along the Himalaya which harbours one of the world's richest alpine endemic flora. The realized range limit of trees is ~800 m higher in the eastern Himalaya than in the western and central Himalaya. Trees had reached their thermal treeline positions in more than 80% of the cases over eastern Himalaya but are absent from the treeline position in western and central Himalaya, due to anthropogenic disturbance and/or premonsoon drought. By combining projections of the deviation of trees from the treeline position due to regional environmental stresses with warming-induced treeline shift, we predict that trees will migrate upslope by ~140 m by the end of the twenty-first century in the eastern Himalaya. This shift will cause the endemic flora to lose at least ~20% of its current habitats, highlighting the necessity to reassess the effectiveness of current conservation networks and policies over the Himalaya.