Predictive Nomogram for Unfavorable Outcome of Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Abstract

Background: The goal of this retrospective study was to evaluate the effect of surgical timing on patient outcomes after spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We also identified risk factors associated with poor prognosis.

Methods: We reviewed all patients who underwent surgery for ICH between January 2014 and January 2021. The outcome was measured using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 6 months after the surgery. Patients with mRS 0-2 were considered having favorable outcomes, and those with mRS 3-5 were considered having unfavorable outcomes. The relationships of surgical timing with the risk of unfavorable outcomes were identified using the interaction and stratified analyses, and generalized additive and logistic regression models. A nomogram was established and evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, plotted decision curve, and calibration curve.

Results: We identified 53 patients with favorable outcomes and 144 with unfavorable outcomes. The number of cases who underwent surgery at >12 hours and <36 hours in the favorable outcome group was more than that in the unfavorable outcome group (P < 0.001). When the time to operating room (TOR) was less than 21 hours, a shorter TOR was associated with unfavorable outcomes, using the smoothing spline analysis (odds ratio = 0.8, P < 0.001). Finally, we developed a nomogram using systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale, midline shift, hematoma volume, and TOR for predicting the unfavorable outcome. The area under the curve, accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity of nomogram were 0.90, 0.87, 0.72, and 0.93, respectively.

Conclusion: Surgical timing between 12 and 26 hours after ICH was associated with favorable outcomes. The nomogram including systolic blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale, midline shift, hematoma volume, and TOR was reliable for predicting the ICH outcome.

Keywords: Clinical application; Nomogram; Smoothing spline; Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage; Surgical timing.