Atrazine is one of the most prevalent herbicides that has been widely applied to agricultural lands in the U.S. Understanding the transport and accumulation of atrazine in the subsurface under future climate scenarios is essential for future agriculture and water management. Here, we predict atrazine transport and accumulation under an intensive corn production land based on 20 projected global climate model (GCM) realizations, while considering uncertainties of transport parameters. Our study predicted continuous groundwater table declination and atrazine mass accumulation on the study site. We show that atrazine mass accumulation in corn production areas is subject to total precipitation in the atrazine application season, whereas atrazine plume movement is controlled by the sequence of annual precipitation. Atrazine mass transport and accumulation are more sensitive to climate variation on the field sites with low sorption and atrazine degradation rate. Under the extreme condition, the atrazine plume can migrate as far as five meters from the ground surface in only three years. While annual mean precipitation in the Midwestern U.S. is projected to increase in the future, groundwater vulnerability to atrazine and associated water quality impacts may rise in the U.S. Corn Belt, especially in sites with low atrazine degradation and sorption.
Keywords: Climate variation; atrazine; fate; groundwater quantity and quality; transport; uncertainty analysis.