Meso-level carbon dioxide emission model based on voyage for inland ships in the Yangtze River

Abstract

To simplify the micro-level CO₂ (carbon dioxide) emission calculation model, reduce the dataset quality requirement of the model, and cut down the volume of calculation, a meso-level voyage-based emission model (MeVEM) for inland ships is proposed with their navigation characteristics considered. The navigation characteristics and the main influencing factors of inland ship emissions are analyzed. The main engine power and average speed of the ships are selected as the model inputs. Accurate CO₂ emissions are calculated by the use of the micro-level emission model. With that, first-order and second-order polynomial regression models are employed to establish the fitting formula to estimate the emissions per kilometer. To validate the proposed model, the Junshan segment in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is selected as the study area, and the model parameters are determined to estimate the CO₂ emissions. It is found that the model of emission per kilometer (e_{j, k}) established by second-order polynomial regression is more accurate. The results show that the percentage error in the total amount (PETA) of the results estimated by the four proposed models (CO₂ emission estimation model for the upstream cargo ships, the downstream cargo ships, the upstream oil tankers, and the downstream oil tankers) are all within ±5%, which verifies the feasibility and applicability of the model. The proposed meso-level model allows us to use a smaller input dataset which is easier to obtain, and estimate CO₂ emissions from ships simply and accurately.

Keywords: Greenhouse gas; Inland ship emission; Meso-level model; Ship voyage.