Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio to Predict the Efficacy of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor in Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer

Abstract

Background/aim: Although the effectiveness of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancer including esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and gastric/gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma (GEA) has been proven, prediction of their efficacy remains unknown. This study aimed to develop optimal serum nutritional indicators or a combination of blood cell components to predict the efficacy of ICI before beginning UGI cancer treatment.

Patients and methods: We retrospectively reviewed the data of 61 UGI cancers (31 ESCC and 30 GEA) patients treated with nivolumab or pembrolizumab. We investigated the impact of serum albumin level, total lymphocyte count (TLC), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) on the efficacy of ICIs and long-term survival. The median cutoff value was adopted separately in ESCC and GEA.

Results: NLR-Low was significantly correlated with better overall survival (p=0.014), and PLR-Low was significantly correlated with improved disease control rate and better progression-free survival in UGI cancer patients. Both results indicate that a better prognosis is correlated to a greater number of lymphocytes. Multivariate analysis revealed that NLR-High [hazard ratio (HR)=2.865; 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.030-7.937; p=0.044] was the only independent poor prognostic factor.

Conclusion: NLR-Low has the potential to predict the good efficacy of ICIs and survival outcomes in patients with UGI cancer. NLR could be useful in determining the optimal treatment strategies for these patients.

Keywords: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; esophageal squamous cell carcinoma; gastric/gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma; immune checkpoint inhibitor.