Dynamic Linkage between Aging, Mechanizations and Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Production

Lili Guo; Yuting Song; Shuang Zhao; Mengqian Tang; Yangli Guo; Mengying Su; Houjian Li

doi:10.3390/ijerph19106191

Dynamic Linkage between Aging, Mechanizations and Carbon Emissions from Agricultural Production

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 May 19;19(10):6191. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19106191.

Authors

Lili Guo¹, Yuting Song¹, Shuang Zhao¹, Mengqian Tang¹, Yangli Guo², Mengying Su³, Houjian Li¹

Affiliations

¹ College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China.
² School of Economics and Management, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China.
³ College of Economics, Guangxi Minzu University, Nanning 530006, China.

Abstract

The trend of aging is intensifying and has become a prominent population phenomenon worldwide. The aging population has an important impact on carbon emissions, but at present, there is little research on its ecological consequences, especially the relationship with agricultural carbon emissions. For a long time, China has been dominated by a scattered small-scale peasant economy. Currently, the aging population also means that the agricultural labor force will gradually become scarce, and the agricultural production will face reform. This article is intended to find the long-term impact of aging and mechanization on agricultural carbon emissions and construct a more comprehensive policy framework for sustainable development, hoping to contribute to environmental and ecological protection. The research sample in this article is from 2000 to 2019, covering 30 provinces (cities, autonomous regions) in China. We adopted methods and models including Fully Modified General Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic General Least Squares (DOLS), Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model, etc., and used the Granger causality test to determine the causal relationship between variables. Results show that aging is the Granger cause of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural mechanization. Agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural mechanization have a bidirectional causal relationship. In the short term, agricultural mechanization and aging both have made a great contribution to carbon dioxide emissions from agricultural production. However, in the long term, the impact of aging on agricultural mechanization is significantly negative. Therefore, it is generally beneficial to improve the environmental problems of agricultural production. Our research focuses on the latest background of population trends and global climate issues and finally provides suggestions and a theoretical basis for the formulation of government agricultural policies according to the research conclusions.

Keywords: PVAR; aging; agricultural carbon emissions; agricultural mechanization.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Agriculture* / methods
Carbon Dioxide* / analysis
China
Sustainable Development

Substances

Carbon Dioxide

Grants and funding

This work research was funded by a project of the National Social Science Foundation of China (21BGL022, 20CMZ037), The soft science project of Sichuan Province, China (2021JDR0300), The Project of the improvement of Young and Middle Aged Teachers’ Basic Scientific Research Ability (2022KY0127), Research Group of Economic Transition and Sustainable Livelihood in Border Area (2020RSCXSHQN04).