To meet the global need for carbon neutrality, we must first understand the role of urban carbon metabolism. In this study, we developed a land-energy-carbon framework to model the spatial and temporal variation of carbon flows in Beijing from 1990 to 2018. Based on the changes in carbon sequestration and energy consumption, we used ecological network analysis to identify the critical paths for achieving carbon neutrality during land-use changes, thereby revealing possible decarbonization pathways to achieve carbon neutrality. By using GIS software, changes in the center of gravity for carbon flows were visualized in each period, and future urban construction scenarios were explored based on land-use policy. We found that the direct carbon emission peaked in 2010, mostly due to a growing area of transportation and industrial land. Total integrated flows through the network decreased at an average annual rate of 3.8%, and the change from cultivated land to the socioeconomic sectors and the paths between each socioeconomic component accounted for 29.5 and 31.7% of the integrated flows during the study period. The socioeconomic sectors as key nodes in the network should focus both on their scale expansion and on using cleaner energy to reduce carbon emissions. The center of gravity gradually moved southward, indicating that the new emission centers should seek a greener mixture of land use. Reducing carbon emission will strongly relied on transforming Beijing's energy consumption structure and increasing green areas to improve carbon sinks. Our results provide insights into carbon flow paths that must be modified by implementing land-use policies to reduce carbon emission and produce a more sustainable urban metabolism.
Keywords: carbon neutral paths; center of gravity; network insight; urban carbon metabolism.