Automated assessment reveals that the extinction risk of reptiles is widely underestimated across space and phylogeny

PLoS Biol. 2022 May 26;20(5):e3001544. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3001544. eCollection 2022 May.

Abstract

The Red List of Threatened Species, published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), is a crucial tool for conservation decision-making. However, despite substantial effort, numerous species remain unassessed or have insufficient data available to be assigned a Red List extinction risk category. Moreover, the Red Listing process is subject to various sources of uncertainty and bias. The development of robust automated assessment methods could serve as an efficient and highly useful tool to accelerate the assessment process and offer provisional assessments. Here, we aimed to (1) present a machine learning-based automated extinction risk assessment method that can be used on less known species; (2) offer provisional assessments for all reptiles-the only major tetrapod group without a comprehensive Red List assessment; and (3) evaluate potential effects of human decision biases on the outcome of assessments. We use the method presented here to assess 4,369 reptile species that are currently unassessed or classified as Data Deficient by the IUCN. The models used in our predictions were 90% accurate in classifying species as threatened/nonthreatened, and 84% accurate in predicting specific extinction risk categories. Unassessed and Data Deficient reptiles were considerably more likely to be threatened than assessed species, adding to mounting evidence that these species warrant more conservation attention. The overall proportion of threatened species greatly increased when we included our provisional assessments. Assessor identities strongly affected prediction outcomes, suggesting that assessor effects need to be carefully considered in extinction risk assessments. Regions and taxa we identified as likely to be more threatened should be given increased attention in new assessments and conservation planning. Lastly, the method we present here can be easily implemented to help bridge the assessment gap for other less known taxa.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Biodiversity
  • Conservation of Natural Resources*
  • Endangered Species
  • Extinction, Biological*
  • Humans
  • Phylogeny
  • Reptiles

Grants and funding

This work has been funded by the Israel Science Foundation grant Num. 406/19 to SM & UR (https://www.isf.org.il/). This work has been funded by the German-Israeli Foundation for Scientific Research and Development Num. I-2519-119.4/2019 to UR (https://www.gif.org.il/). It has also been partially funded by Australian Research Council grant num. FT200100108 to DGC (https://www.arc.gov.au/). We also thank the Australian Friends of Tel Aviv University–Monash University (‘AFTAM’) Academic Collaborative Awards Program for funding this research to SM & DGC. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.