Modelling effectiveness of COVID-19 pandemic control policies using an Area-based SEIR model with consideration of infection during interzonal travel

Jielun Liu; Ghim Ping Ong; Vincent Junxiong Pang

doi:10.1016/j.tra.2022.05.003

Modelling effectiveness of COVID-19 pandemic control policies using an Area-based SEIR model with consideration of infection during interzonal travel

Transp Res Part A Policy Pract. 2022 Jul:161:25-47. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2022.05.003. Epub 2022 May 17.

Authors

Jielun Liu¹, Ghim Ping Ong¹, Vincent Junxiong Pang²

Affiliations

¹ Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, 117576, Singapore.
² Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, 117549, Singapore.

Abstract

This paper studies the effectiveness of several pandemic restriction measures adopted in Singapore during the COVID-19 outbreak. To this end, the classical Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model widely used to describe the dynamic process of epidemic propagation is extended to an area-based SEIR model with the consideration of exposure to infections during commute and quarantine. The proposed model considers infections within areas and infections occurred during the commute of individuals. A case study of the Singapore MRT system is presented to show the effectiveness of pandemic restriction policies implemented in Singapore, namely social distancing, work shift and Circuit Breaker (CB) and phase advisories. A long-term investigation of COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore is performed, and the disease transmission dynamics in 2020-2021 (which covers the first wave and second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore) is modelled.

Keywords: Area based SEIR model; Exposure to infections during commute; Pandemic restriction policies; Singapore MRT system.