Time to Death and Its Determinant Factors Among Patients With Chronic Heart Failure in Northwest Ethiopia: A Retrospective Study at Selected Referral Hospitals

Abstract

Background: Heart failure (HF) is a major health problem that affects patients and healthcare systems worldwide. It is the leading cause of morbidity and death and negatively impacts the quality of life, healthcare costs, and longevity. However, the causes of death were not well defined. This study aimed to identify the determinants of death among patients with HF in the Amhara Region, Northwest Ethiopia.

Methods: A multicenter retrospective cohort study was conducted on 285 patients in the age group 15 years or older under follow-up from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2019. Descriptive analyses were summarized using the Kaplan-Meier survival curve and the log-rank test. Then, the Cox-proportional hazard regression model was employed to estimate the hazard of death up to 5 years after they were admitted to the HF department to follow up on their treatment.

Results: Out of 285 patients with HF, 93(32.6%) of the respondents were dying within 5 years of follow-up. Anemia was the common comorbid disease (30.5%), and valvular heart disease was the most common etiology (33.7%) of chronic heart failure in this study. This study showed a significant mortality difference between hospitals. HF patients with hypertension [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR): 3.5076, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.43, 8.60], anemia (AHR: 2.85, 95% 1.61, 5.03), pneumonia (AHR: 2.02, 95% 1.20, 3.39), chronic kidney disease (2.23, CI: 1.31, 3.77), and diabetes mellitus (AHR: 2.42, 95% CI: 1.43, 4.09) were at a higher risk of death. Moreover, patients with symptoms listed in the New York Heart Association Class (III and IV), Ischemic Heart Disease and unknown etiologies, men (AHR: 2.76, 95%:1.59, 4.78), and those with a high pulse rate (AHR: 1.02, 95%:1.00, 1.04) were at a higher risk of death.

Conclusion: There was a mortality difference between hospitals. This study has revealed that HF patients with anemia, diabetes mellitus, pneumonia, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, HF etiologies, severe New York Heart Association Class (III and IV), men, and high pulse rate were the main factors associated with death. Health professionals could give more attention to patients whose pulse rate is high, men, and a patient who had comorbidities in the ward.

Keywords: Cox; heart failure; hospital; mortality; multicenter; survival.