A pragmatic dementia risk score for patients with mild cognitive impairment in a memory clinic population: Development and validation of a dementia risk score using routinely collected data

Meng Wang; Tolulope T Sajobi; Zahinoor Ismail; Dallas Seitz; Thierry Chekouo; Nils D Forkert; Karyn Fischer; Aaron Mackie; Dawn Pearson; David Patry; Alicja Cieslak; Bijoy Menon; Philip Barber; Brienne McLane; Robert Granger; David B Hogan; Eric E Smith; Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative

doi:10.1002/trc2.12301

A pragmatic dementia risk score for patients with mild cognitive impairment in a memory clinic population: Development and validation of a dementia risk score using routinely collected data

Alzheimers Dement (N Y). 2022 May 11;8(1):e12301. doi: 10.1002/trc2.12301. eCollection 2022.

Authors

Meng Wang^{1

2

3}, Tolulope T Sajobi^{1

2

3

4}, Zahinoor Ismail^{1

2

5

3

4}, Dallas Seitz^{5

4}, Thierry Chekouo⁶, Nils D Forkert^{2

7

4}, Karyn Fischer², Aaron Mackie⁵, Dawn Pearson², David Patry², Alicja Cieslak², Bijoy Menon^{2

4}, Philip Barber^{1

2

4}, Brienne McLane⁵, Robert Granger⁵, David B Hogan^{1

8}, Eric E Smith^{2

1

4}; Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative

Affiliations

¹ Department of Community Health Sciences University of Calgary Calgary Alberta Canada.
² Department of Clinical Neurosciences University of Calgary Calgary Alberta Canada.
³ O'Brien Institute of Public Health University of Calgary Calgary Alberta Canada.
⁴ Hotchkiss Brain Institute University of Calgary Calgary Alberta Canada.
⁵ Department of Psychiatry University of Calgary Calgary Alberta Canada.
⁶ Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Calgary Calgary Alberta Canada.
⁷ Department of Radiology University of Calgary Calgary Alberta Canada.
⁸ Department of Medicnie University of Calgary Calgary Alberta Canada.

Abstract

Introduction: This study aimed to develop and validate a 3-year dementia risk score in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) based on variables collected in routine clinical care.

Methods: The prediction score was trained and developed using data from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC). Selection criteria included aged 55 years and older with MCI. Cox models were validated externally using two independent cohorts from the Prospective Registry of Persons with Memory Symptoms (PROMPT) registry and the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database.

Results: Our Mild Cognitive Impairment to Dementia Risk (CIDER) score predicted dementia risk with c-indices of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.66-0.72), 0.61 (95% CI 0.59-0.63), and 0.72 (95% CI 0.69-0.75), for the internally validated and the external validation PROMPT, and ADNI cohorts, respectively.

Discussion: The CIDER score could be used to inform clinicians and patients about the relative probabilities of developing dementia in patients with MCI.

Keywords: dementia; mild cognitive impairment; risk prediction; routine care; validation.

Abstract

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