Aim: To estimate the risk of disability associated with high-risk prescribing, such as polypharmacy and drugs with sedative or anticholinergic properties, using long-term care needs certification as a proxy of incident disability.
Methods: A case-control study nested within a cohort of older adults (89% aged ≥65 years) was carried out between 2014 and 2019 using the combined medical claims and long-term care needs certification database of Tsukuba City, Japan. We identified 2123 cases who received their first long-term care certification, and matched them to 40 295 controls based on age, sex, residential area and observation period (≥36 months). The risk of long-term care needs certification associated with high-risk prescribing exposure 7-30 months before the index month was estimated using conditional logistic regression adjusting for baseline comorbidities and health service use.
Results: Polypharmacy (5-9 drugs; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.32, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.18-1.47), hyperpolypharmacy (≥10 drugs; aOR 1.87, 95% CI 1.57-2.23) and cumulative dose of drugs with sedative or anticholinergic properties (1-364 defined daily dose [DDD]; aOR 1.07, 95% CI 0.97-1.19; 365-729 DDD; aOR 1.25, 95% CI 1.07-1.45; ≥730 DDD; aOR 1.33, 95% CI 1.19-1.62) had dose-response relationships with long-term care certification risks.
Conclusions: High-risk prescribing was associated with the risk of long-term care needs certification in the general older population. Further studies are warranted to examine whether a decrease in prescribing drugs with sedative or anticholinergic properties could reduce the long-term care burden on society. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2022; 22: 497-504.
Keywords: deprescribing; frailty; long-term care; polypharmacy; potentially inappropriate medications.
© 2022 Japan Geriatrics Society.