Prevalence trends of latent tuberculosis infection at the global, regional, and country levels from 1990-2019

Abstract

Objectives: To track the prevalence trends of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) at the global, regional, and national levels.

Methods: Data on the prevalence of LTBI were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease database. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was estimated by joinpoint regression and was used to evaluate the epidemic of the disease.

Results: Globally, the prevalence rate of LTBI decreased from 30.66% in 1990 to 23.67% in 2019, with an AAPC of -0.9%. The prevalence rate of LTBI varied from 5.02% (Jordan) to 48.35% (Uganda) in 1990 and from 2.51% (Jordan) to 43.75% (Vietnam) in 2019 at the country level. The prevalence decreased in all the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions and in most countries, with the AAPC ranging from -0.5% in the Western Pacific Region to -2.1% in the European Region and from -4.3% (Bhutan) to -0.1% (Malaysia, Myanmar, South Africa, Tokelau, and Vietnam), respectively. Disparities were also observed among different sex and age groups.

Conclusion: The prevalence of LTBI decreased slightly worldwide in the last three decades, but the decrease is slow and not sufficient to meet the targets of WHO tuberculosis elimination. Much more effort and progress should be made in order to decrease the prevalence of LTBI.

Keywords: Disease burden; Epidemic trend; Latent tuberculosis infection; Prevalence.