Appropriate relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions minimizes the risk of a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections in spite of the Delta variant

PLoS Comput Biol. 2022 May 16;18(5):e1010054. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010054. eCollection 2022 May.

Abstract

We analyze the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) under an increasing number of vaccinations in Germany. For the spread of SARS-CoV-2 we employ a SIR-type model that accounts for age-dependence and includes realistic contact patterns between age groups. The implementation of NPIs occurs on changed contact patterns, improved isolation, or reduced infectiousness when, e.g., wearing masks. We account for spatial heterogeneity and commuting activities in between regions in Germany, and the testing of commuters is considered as a further NPI. We include the ongoing vaccination process and analyze the effect of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, which is considered to be 40%-60% more infectious then the currently dominant B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant. We explore different opening scenarios under the ongoing vaccination process by assuming that local restrictions are either lifted in early July or August with or without continued wearing of masks and testing. Our results indicate that we can counteract the resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 despite the Delta variant with appropriate timing for the relaxation of NPIs. In all cases, however, school children are hit the hardest.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • COVID-19* / prevention & control
  • Child
  • Humans
  • Masks
  • SARS-CoV-2* / genetics
  • Vaccination

Supplementary concepts

  • SARS-CoV-2 variants

Grants and funding

S.B. has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003480. S.B. has received funding from the Initiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz Association. S.B. was supported by German Federal Ministry of Education and Research for the project CoViDec (FKZ: 01KI20102). M.J.K. acknowledges the Helmholtz Information & Data Science Academy (HIDA) for providing financial support within the HIDA Trainee Network program enabling a short-term research stay at Department of Systems Immunology and Braunschweig Integrated Centre of Systems Biology (BRICS), Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Braunschweig to analyze data sets that were used as input data for our models. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.