Spatiotemporal pattern of reference crop evapotranspiration and its response to meteorological factors in Northwest China over years 2000-2019

Abstract

Agricultural irrigation water in Northwest China accounts for more than 80% of total local water consumption, which is 1.23 times that of China. However, Northwest China is the most water-scarce place in China. Water scarcity in restricts crop growth and production. Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET₀) is important for agricultural water management. Understanding the reason for ET₀ change is helpful to provide a basis for rational planning of agricultural irrigation systems to conserve water. This study investigated the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of ET₀ at 181 meteorological stations in Northwest China from 2000 to 2019. And the sensitive factors and dominant factors affecting ET₀ change were quantitatively identified based on sensitivity analysis and contribution rate evaluation. Results showed that (1) a significant increase in maximum and minimum temperature (T_max and T_min), a significant decrease in sunshine duration (SD) and relative humidity (RH), and a slight increase in wind speed at 10 m height (U₁₀) were observed. (2) Annual ET₀ had an insignificant increasing trend. Spring and autumn ET₀ contributed greatly to the growth of annual ET₀, especially in March, May, September, October, and November. ET₀ in HH (Yellow River Basin area) had decreased at annual scale, while other subregions were the opposite trend. Significant differences in monthly and seasonal changes in the spatial distribution of ET₀. (3) U₁₀ was the dominating contribution factor related to annual ET₀ variability, followed by T_min, RH, T_max, and SD. In seasonal time scale, T_min, SD, U₁₀, and RH were the most dominant factors in spring, summer, autumn, and winter respectively. (4) Spatial distribution for contribution rates of various meteorological factors showed significant diversity among various subregions. The positive contribution of U₁₀ was the major cause of the increase in ET₀ in semi-arid grassland area (BGH), the southwest of "Qice line" (QCXXN), and the southeast of "Qice line" (QCXDN); the significant increase in T_min contributed most in Qaidam Basin (CDM), Hexi inland river basin (HX), the northeast of "Qice line" (QCXDB), and the northwest of "Qice line" (QCXXB), while the contribution of decreasing SD offsets the positive effects of other factors, leading to the decrease in ET₀ in HH. Our work illustrates that water management measures should be different at different spatial and temporal scales. The effect of U₁₀ can be offset by covering, to reduce evaporation and maintain water in BGH, QCXXN, and QCXDN. And high-temperature resistant varieties are planted to adapt to temperature growth in CDM, HX, QCXDB, and QCXXB. Agricultural water management strategies should be formulated and selected according to local conditions.

Keywords: Climate change; Dominant factors; Northwest China; Reference crop evapotranspiration; Spatiotemporal distribution.