Background: Baseline high circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) fraction in plasma and androgen receptor (AR) copy number (CN) gain identify mCRPC patients with worse outcomes. This study aimed to assess if ctDNA associates with PSA kinetics. Methods: In this prospective biomarker study, we evaluate ctDNA fraction and AR CN from plasma samples. We divided patients into high and low ctDNA level and in AR gain and AR normal. Results: 220 baseline samples were collected from mCRPC treated with abiraterone (n = 140) or enzalutamide (n = 80). A lower rate of PSA decline ≥ 50% was observed in patients with high ctDNA (p = 0.017) and AR gain (p = 0.0003). Combining ctDNA fraction and AR CN, we found a different median PSA progression-free survival (PFS) among four groups: (1) low ctDNA/AR normal, (2) high ctDNA/AR normal, (3) low ctDNA/AR gain, and (4) high ctDNA/AR gain (11.4 vs. 5.0 vs. 4.8 vs. 3.7 months, p < 0.0001). In a multivariable analysis, high ctDNA, AR gain, PSA DT, PSA DT velocity remained independent predictors of PSA PFS. Conclusions: Elevated ctDNA levels and AR gain are negatively and independently correlated with PSA kinetics in mCRPC men treated with abiraterone or enzalutamide.
Keywords: AR copy number; biomarkers; circulating tumor DNA; metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer.