Machine learning for the prediction of acute kidney injury in patients with sepsis

Abstract

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is the most common and serious complication of sepsis, accompanied by high mortality and disease burden. The early prediction of AKI is critical for timely intervention and ultimately improves prognosis. This study aims to establish and validate predictive models based on novel machine learning (ML) algorithms for AKI in critically ill patients with sepsis.

Methods: Data of patients with sepsis were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC- III) database. Feature selection was performed using a Boruta algorithm. ML algorithms such as logistic regression (LR), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, random forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network (ANN) were applied for model construction by utilizing tenfold cross-validation. The performances of these models were assessed in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical application. Moreover, the discrimination of ML-based models was compared with those of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and the customized Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II model.

Results: A total of 3176 critically ill patients with sepsis were included for analysis, of which 2397 cases (75.5%) developed AKI during hospitalization. A total of 36 variables were selected for model construction. The models of LR, KNN, SVM, decision tree, random forest, ANN, XGBoost, SOFA and SAPS II score were established and obtained area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.7365, 0.6637, 0.7353, 0.7492, 0.7787, 0.7547, 0.821, 0.6457 and 0.7015, respectively. The XGBoost model had the best predictive performance in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical application among all models.

Conclusion: The ML models can be reliable tools for predicting AKI in septic patients. The XGBoost model has the best predictive performance, which can be used to assist clinicians in identifying high-risk patients and implementing early interventions to reduce mortality.

Keywords: Acute kidney injury; MIMIC- III database; Machine learning; Prediction model; Sepsis.