Potential risk of colonization of Bulinus globosus in the mainland of China under climate change

Xinyao Wang; Saleh Juma; Wei Li; Mchanga Suleman; Mtumweni Ali Muhsin; Jian He; Mingzhen He; Dacheng Xu; Jianfeng Zhang; Robert Bergquist; Kun Yang

doi:10.1186/s40249-022-00980-2

Potential risk of colonization of Bulinus globosus in the mainland of China under climate change

Infect Dis Poverty. 2022 May 13;11(1):52. doi: 10.1186/s40249-022-00980-2.

Authors

Xinyao Wang^{1

2}, Saleh Juma³, Wei Li^{1

2}, Mchanga Suleman³, Mtumweni Ali Muhsin^{3

4}, Jian He^{1

2}, Mingzhen He⁵, Dacheng Xu⁶, Jianfeng Zhang^{1

2}, Robert Bergquist⁷, Kun Yang^{8

9

10

11}

Affiliations

¹ Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Wuxi, 214064, Jiangsu, China.
² Key Laboratory On Technology for Parasitic Disease Prevention and Control, Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory On the Molecular Biology of Parasites, Ministry of Health, Wuxi, 214064, Jiangsu, China.
³ Ministry of Health of Zanzibar, P.O. Box 236, Zanzibar, United Republic of Tanzania.
⁴ College of Medicine, Jiangnan University, Wuxi, 214122, Jiangsu, China.
⁵ Changzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China.
⁶ Jintan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changzhou, Jiangsu, China.
⁷ Ingerod, SE-454 94, Brastad, Sweden.
⁸ Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Wuxi, 214064, Jiangsu, China. yangkun@jipd.com.
⁹ Key Laboratory On Technology for Parasitic Disease Prevention and Control, Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory On the Molecular Biology of Parasites, Ministry of Health, Wuxi, 214064, Jiangsu, China. yangkun@jipd.com.
¹⁰ College of Medicine, Jiangnan University, Wuxi, 214122, Jiangsu, China. yangkun@jipd.com.
¹¹ School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China. yangkun@jipd.com.

Abstract

Background: Bulinus globosus, the main intermediate snail host of Schistosoma haematobium. The increased contacts between Africa and China could even lead to large-scale dissemination of B. globosus in China. Temperature is the key factor affecting fresh-water snail transmission. This study predicted potential risk of colonization of B. globosus in the mainland of China under climate change.

Methods: We investigated minimum and maximum temperatures for B. globosus eggs, juveniles and adult snails kept under laboratory conditions to find the most suitable range by pinpointing the median effective temperatures (ET50). We also assessed the influence of temperature on spawning and estimated the accumulated temperature (AT). The average air temperatures between 1955 and 2019 in January and July, the coldest and hottest months in China, respectively, were collected from national meteorological monitoring stations and investigated in a geographic information system (GIS) using empirical Bayesian Kriging to evaluate the theoretical possibility for distribution of B. globosus in southern China based on temperature.

Results: The effective minimum temperature (ET50_min) for eggs, juveniles, adult snails and spawning were 8.5, 7.0, 7.0, 14.9 °C, respectively, with the corresponding maximum values (ET50_max) of 36.6, 40.5, 40.2 and 38.1 °C. The AT was calculated at 712.1 ± 64.9 °C·d. In 1955, the potential B. globosus distribution would have had a northern boundary stretching from the coastal areas of Guangdong Province and Guangxi Autonomous Region to southern Yunnan Province. Since then, this line has gradually moved northward.

Conclusions: Annual regeneration of B. globosus can be supported by the current climate conditions in the mainland of China, and a gradual expansion trend from south to north is shown in the study from 2015 to 2019. Thus, there is a potential risk of colonization of B. globosus in the mainland of China under climate change.

Keywords: Bulinus globosus; China; Climate change; Colonization; Geographic information systems; Potential distribution; Schistosoma haematobium.

MeSH terms

Animals
Bayes Theorem
Bulinus*
China
Climate Change*
Schistosoma haematobium
Snails

Abstract

MeSH terms

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