Climate change impacts on conventional and flash droughts in the Mekong River Basin

Abstract

Recent drought events in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) have resulted in devastating environmental and economic losses, and climate change and human-induced alterations have exacerbated drought conditions. Using hydrologic models and multiple climate change scenarios, this study quantified the future climate change impacts on conventional and flash drought conditions in the MRB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models were applied to estimate long-term drought indices for conventional and flash drought conditions over historical and future periods (1966-2099), using two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5), and four climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For the conventional drought assessment, monthly scale drought indices were estimated, and pentad-scale (5 days) drought indices were computed for the flash drought evaluations. There were overall increases in droughts from the SWAT model for the conventional drought conditions and overall decreases from the VIC model. For the flash drought conditions, the SWAT-driven drought indices showed overall increases in drought occurrences (up to 165%). On the contrary, the VIC-driven drought indices presented decreases in drought occurrences (up to -44%). The conventional and flash drought evaluations differ between these models as they partition the water budget, specifically soil moisture differently. We conclude that the proposed framework, which includes hydrologic models, various emission scenarios, and projections, allows us to assess the various perspectives on drought conditions. Basin countries have differential impacts, so targeted future adaptation strategy is required.

Keywords: Climate change; Flash droughts; Mekong; Modeling; SWAT; Soil moisture; VIC.