Epidemiology, Management, Quality of Testing and Cost of Syphilis in Germany: A Retrospective Model Analysis

Abstract

Background: A multi-dimensional model can be a useful tool for estimating the general impact of disease on the different sectors of the healthcare system. We chose the sexually transmitted disease syphilis for our model due to the good quality of reported data in Germany.

Methods: The model included gender- and age-stratified incident cases of syphilis (in- and outpatients) provided by a German statutory health insurance company, as well as seroprevalence data on syphilis in first-time blood donors. Age standardized rates were calculated based on the standard German population. The test quality was assessed by extrapolating the number of false-positive and false-negative results based on data from Europe-wide external quality assessment (EQA) schemes. The model analysis was validated with the reported cases and diagnosis-related group (DRG)-statistics from 2010 to 2012. The annual direct and indirect economic burden was estimated based on the outcomes of our model.

Results: The standardized results were slightly higher than the results reported between 2010 and 2012. This could be due to an underassessment of cases in Germany or due to limitations of the dataset. The number of estimated inpatients was predicted with an accuracy of 89.8 %. Results from EQA schemes indicated an average sensitivity of 92.8 % and an average specificity of 99.9 % for the recommended sequential testing for syphilis. Based on our model, we estimated a total average minimal annual burden of €20,292,110 for syphilis on the German healthcare system between 2010 and 2012.

Conclusions: The linking of claims data, results from EQA schemes, and blood donor surveillance can be a useful tool for assessing the burden of disease on the healthcare system. It can help raise awareness in populations potentially at risk for infectious diseases, demonstrate the need to educate potential risk groups, and may help with predictive cost calculations and planning.

Keywords: EQA; Germany; blood donor database; economic model; healthcare utilization database; retrospective model analysis; syphilis.