Background: The International IgA Nephropathy Prediction Tool has been recently developed to estimate the progression risk of immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN). This study aimed to evaluate the clinical performance of this prediction tool in a large IgAN cohort in Korea.
Methods: The study cohort was comprised of 2,064 patients with biopsy-proven IgAN from four medical centers between March 2012 and September 2021. We calculated the predicted risk for each patient. The primary outcome was occurrence of a 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) from the time of biopsy or end-stage kidney disease. The model performance was evaluated for discrimination, calibration, and reclassification. We also constructed and tested an additional model with a new coefficient for the Korean race.
Results: During a median follow-up period of 3.8 years (interquartile range, 1.8-6.6 years), 363 patients developed the primary outcome. The two prediction models exhibited good discrimination power, with a C-statistic of 0.81. The two models generally underestimated the risk of the primary outcome, with lesser underestimation for the model with race. The model with race showed better performance in reclassification compared to the model without race (net reclassification index, 0.13). The updated model with the Korean coefficient showed good agreement between predicted risk and observed outcome.
Conclusion: In Korean IgAN patients, International IgA Nephropathy Prediction Tool had good discrimination power but underestimated the risk of progression. The updated model with the Korean coefficient showed acceptable calibration and warrants external validation.
Keywords: External validation; IgA nephropathy; International prediction tool; Prediction model; Renal insufficiency; Risk factors.