Worldwide Low Impact Developments (LIDs) are used for sustainable stormwater management; however, both the stormwater and LIDs carry microbial pathogens. The widespread development of LIDs is likely to increase human exposure to pathogens and risk of infection, leading to unexpected disease outbreaks in urban communities. The risk of infection from exposure to LIDs has been assessed via Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) during the operation of these infrastructures; no effort is made to evaluate these risks during the planning phase of LID treatment train in urban communities. We developed a new integrated "Regression-QMRA method" by examining the relationship between pathogens' concentration and environmental variables. Applying of this methodology to a planned LID train shows that the predicted disease burden of diarrhea from Campylobacter is highest (i.e. 16.902 DALYs/1000 persons/yr) during landscape irrigation and playing on the LID train, followed by Giardia, Cryptosporidium, and Norovirus. These results illustrate that the risk of microbial infection can be predicted during the planning phase of LID treatment train. These predictions are of great value to municipalities and decision-makers to make informed decisions and ensure risk-based planning of stormwater systems before their development.
Keywords: Low Impact Developments (LIDs); Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA); Regression modeling; Risk-based planning; Stormwater system.
© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.