In 2009, elite swimming introduced polyurethane "supersuits," which artificially enhanced performances and facilitated 43 world records at the World Championships, before being prohibited from 2010. This transient, artificial improvement spike created a natural experiment to examine the effect of "impossible" targets on subsequent performances. Analyses revealed that swimming speeds at global championships in the postsupersuit period (2011-2017) were substantially faster than predicted from the presupersuit period (2000-2007). These results suggest that the transient, artificially enhanced performances of the supersuit era recalibrated targets upward-acting as goals-and improved subsequent performances beyond previous trajectories (d = 0.64; 0.70%). Contributing to psychological goal-setting theory, the positive relationship between the size of the transient, artificial improvement (i.e., goal difficulty) and subsequent performance was curvilinear, increasing at a decreasing rate before improvements plateaued. Overall, the research demonstrates the potential for elite athletes to exceed perceived human limits after expectations have been recalibrated upward.
Keywords: expectations; goal difficulty; goal-setting; goals; swimming; targets.