Emerging canine leptospirosis in Sydney and the role of population demographics

Abstract

An outbreak of canine leptospirosis commenced in Sydney, Australia in 2017. The aim of this retrospective study was to determine if clusters of leptospirosis occurred during this outbreak, and if these were associated with host factors, to assist investigation of the drivers of emerging leptospirosis at this location. Within the City of Sydney local government area, 13 cases were reported during the outbreak. Administrative data on the canine population were collected and mapped. Clusters of leptospirosis cases were detected using a retrospective space-time analysis and a discrete Poisson probability statistical model. Sydney dog population registration [55.6%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 51.8-58.1%] was lower than the Australian national average (80%). The distribution of dog types, based on the United Kennel Club standards, was significantly (p < .0001) different to that of the national profile: there was a distinct preference in Sydney for companion dogs. The age distribution of dogs in Sydney did not reflect a typical right-skewed curve; instead, a relatively uniform distribution was observed between the age group of 1 to 8 years. A primary disease cluster (radius 1.1 km) in the eastern area of the Sydney City Council was identified (4 cases observed between 24 May and 9 August 2019 vs. 0.10 cases expected), p = .0450. When adjusted for the age, breed type and sex distribution of the population, similar clusters were identified; in the case of age-adjustment, the spatiotemporal cluster identified was larger and of longer duration (seven cases observed between 28 June and 11 November 2019 versus 0.34 cases expected), p = .0025. The presence of clusters of canine leptospirosis in the City of Sydney during this outbreak, which persisted after adjustment for demographics (age, sex, breed type), suggest that environmental factors - rather than host or pathogen factors - might be responsible for the emergence of leptospirosis. Environmental factors that potentially might be linked to this outbreak of canine leptospirosis and the clusters observed require investigation.

Keywords: dog; epidemiology; infectious disease; leptospirosis; spatial.