Predicting Disease-Specific Survival for Patients With Primary Cholangiocarcinoma Undergoing Curative Resection by Using a Decision Tree Model

Bing Quan; Miao Li; Shenxin Lu; Jinghuan Li; Wenfeng Liu; Feng Zhang; Rongxin Chen; Zhenggang Ren; Xin Yin

doi:10.3389/fonc.2022.824541

Predicting Disease-Specific Survival for Patients With Primary Cholangiocarcinoma Undergoing Curative Resection by Using a Decision Tree Model

Front Oncol. 2022 Apr 21:12:824541. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2022.824541. eCollection 2022.

Authors

Bing Quan^{1

2}, Miao Li^{1

2}, Shenxin Lu^{1

2}, Jinghuan Li^{1

2}, Wenfeng Liu^{1

2}, Feng Zhang^{1

2}, Rongxin Chen^{1

2}, Zhenggang Ren^{1

2}, Xin Yin^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ Liver Cancer Institute, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
² National Clinical Research Center for Interventional Medicine, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.

Abstract

Background: The aim of this study was to derive and validate a decision tree model to predict disease-specific survival after curative resection for primary cholangiocarcinoma (CCA).

Method: Twenty-one clinical characteristics were collected from 482 patients after curative resection for primary CCA. A total of 289 patients were randomly allocated into a training cohort and 193 were randomly allocated into a validation cohort. We built three decision tree models based on 5, 12, and 21 variables, respectively. Area under curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity were used for comparison of the 0.5-, 1-, and 3-year decision tree models and regression models. AUC and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to determine the predictive performances of the 0.5-, 1-, and 3-year decision tree models and AJCC TNM stage models.

Results: According to the fitting degree and the computational cost, the decision tree model derived from 12 variables displayed superior predictive efficacy to the other two models, with an accuracy of 0.938 in the training cohort and 0.751 in the validation cohort. Maximum tumor size, resection margin, lymph node status, histological differentiation, TB level, ALBI, AKP, AAPR, ALT, γ-GT, CA19-9, and Child-Pugh grade were involved in the model. The performances of 0.5-, 1-, and 3-year decision tree models were better than those of conventional models and AJCC TNM stage models.

Conclusion: We developed a decision tree model to predict outcomes for CCA undergoing curative resection. The present decision tree model outperformed other clinical models, facilitating individual decision-making of adjuvant therapy after curative resection.

Keywords: cholangiocarcinoma; decision tree; disease-specific survival; prediction; resection.