Predictive validity of the HCR-20V3 in a sample of Australian forensic psychiatric patients

Delene M Brookstein; Michael Daffern; James R P Ogloff; Rachel E Campbell; Chi Meng Chu

doi:10.1080/13218719.2020.1775152

Predictive validity of the HCR-20^V3 in a sample of Australian forensic psychiatric patients

Psychiatr Psychol Law. 2020 Jun 16;28(3):325-342. doi: 10.1080/13218719.2020.1775152. eCollection 2021.

Authors

Delene M Brookstein^{1

2}, Michael Daffern^{1

2}, James R P Ogloff^{1

2}, Rachel E Campbell², Chi Meng Chu^{3

4}

Affiliations

¹ Centre for Forensic Behavioural Science, Swinburne University of Technology, Alphington, VIC, Australia.
² Victorian Institute of Forensic Mental Health (Forensicare), Melbourne, Australia.
³ Translational Social Research Division, National Council of Social Service, Singapore.
⁴ Ministry of Social and Family Development, Policy Research Office, Singapore.

Abstract

The Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 Version 3 is the latest iteration in the HCR-20 series, adopting novel changes such as the addition of Relevance ratings and non-requirement to include the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised. This study aimed to examine these changes and compare the predictive validity of the HCR-20^V3 to the HCR-20^V2. The sample comprised of 100 forensic psychiatric patients, retrospectively followed up for a maximum period of approximately 13 years post-discharge from the Thomas Embling Hospital. Recidivism data were sourced from official police records. Results indicated good to excellent inter-rater reliability. The HCR-20^V3 significantly predicted violent recidivism (area under the curve = .70 to .77), levels of accuracy that were not significantly different from the HCR-20^V2. HCR-20^V3 Relevance ratings failed to add incremental validity above Presence ratings; however, the PCL-R improved upon the HCR-20^V3's validity. The study represented one of the first evaluations of the HCR-20^V3 in Australia.

Keywords: HCR-20V3; Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 Version 3; PCL–R; Psychopathy Checklist–Revised; predictive validity; reliability; violence risk assessment.