Prognostic Role of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Asthma Physiology Score for in-Hospital and 1-year Mortality in Patients with Acute Exacerbations of COPD

Abstract

Background and objectives: Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) often lead to high mortality. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma physiology score (CAPS) is a simple clinical severity score. The aim of this study was to explore whether CAPS could be an effective predictor for in-hospital and 1-year mortality in AECOPD patients. Methods. We used CAPS to grade all patients and record their clinical characteristics. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the cut-off of CAPS that discriminated survivors and non-survivors. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses and Cox regression analyses were used to identify the risk factors for in-hospital and 1-year mortality, respectively. Results. 240 patients were enrolled in our study; 18 patients died during hospitalization and 29 patients died during the 1-year follow-up. Compared with in-hospital survivors, those who died were older (80.83 ± 6.06 vs. 76.94 ± 8.30 years old, P = 0.019) and had a higher percentage of congestive heart failure (61.1% vs. 14.4%, P < 0.001), higher CAPS levels (31.11 ± 10.05 vs. 16.49 ± 7.11 points, P < 0.001), and a lower BMI (19.48 ± 3.26 vs. 21.50 ± 3.86, P = 0.032). The area under the ROC curve of CAPS for in-hospital death was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.85-0.96) with a sensitivity of 0.889 and a specificity of 0.802 for a cut-off point of 21 points. CAPS ≥21 points was an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality after adjustment for relative risk (RR) (RR = 13.28, 95% CI: 1.97-89.53, P = 0.008). Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that a CAPS ≥21 points (HR = 4.07, 95% CI: 1.97-8.44) was a risk factor for 1-year mortality. However, multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that CAPS (HR = 2.24, 95% CI: 0.90-5.53) was not associated with 1-year mortality.

Conclusion: A CAPS ≥21 points was a strong and independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality in AECOPD patients and CAPS had no impact on the 1-year mortality in patients with acute exacerbations of COPD after discharge.