A Novel Risk Prediction Model for Severe Acute Kidney Injury in Intensive Care Unit Patients Receiving Fluid Resuscitation

Yunlin Feng; Qiang Li; Simon Finfer; John Myburgh; Rinaldo Bellomo; Vlado Perkovic; Meg Jardine; Amanda Y Wang; Martin Gallagher

doi:10.3389/fcvm.2022.840611

A Novel Risk Prediction Model for Severe Acute Kidney Injury in Intensive Care Unit Patients Receiving Fluid Resuscitation

Front Cardiovasc Med. 2022 Apr 18:9:840611. doi: 10.3389/fcvm.2022.840611. eCollection 2022.

Authors

Yunlin Feng^{1

2}, Qiang Li², Simon Finfer², John Myburgh², Rinaldo Bellomo³, Vlado Perkovic², Meg Jardine^{4

5}, Amanda Y Wang^{2

5}, Martin Gallagher^{2

6}

Affiliations

¹ Renal Division, Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences and Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital, Chengdu, China.
² The George Institute for Global Health, University of New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, Australia.
³ Department of Critical Care, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
⁴ NHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
⁵ Concord Clinical School, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
⁶ South Western Sydney Clinical School, University of New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, Australia.

Abstract

Background: To develop a risk prediction model for the occurrence of severe acute kidney injury (AKI) in intensive care unit (ICU) patients receiving fluid resuscitation.

Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of the Crystalloid vs. Hydroxyethyl Starch Trial (CHEST) trial, a blinded randomized controlled trial that enrolled ICU patients who received intravenous fluid resuscitation. The primary outcome was the first event in a composite outcome of doubling of serum creatinine and/or treatment with renal replacement treatment (RRT) within 28 days of randomization. The final model developed using multivariable logistic regression with backwards elimination was validated internally and then translated into a predictive equation.

Results: Six thousand seven hundred twenty-seven ICU participants were studied, among whom 745 developed the study outcome. The final model having six variables, including admission diagnosis of sepsis, illness severity score, mechanical ventilation, tachycardia, baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate and emergency admission. The model had good discrimination (c-statistic = 0.72, 95% confidence interval 0.697-0.736) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, χ² = 14.4, p = 0.07) for the composite outcome, with a c-statistic after internal bootstrapping validation of 0.72, which revealed a low degree of over-fitting. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 58.8 and 89.1%, respectively. The decision curve analysis indicates a net benefit in prediction of severe AKI using the model across a range of threshold probabilities between 5 and 35%.

Conclusions: Our model, using readily available clinical variables to identify ICU patients at high risk of severe AKI achieved good predictive performance in a clinically relevant population.

Keywords: ICU; acute kidney injury; fluids resuscitation; model; risk prediction.