Impact of COVID-19 Social Distancing Mandates on Gastrointestinal Pathogen Positivity: Secondary Data Analysis

Abstract

Background: Acute gastrointestinal (GI) illnesses are of the most common problems evaluated by physicians and some of the most preventable. There is evidence of GI pathogen transmission when people are in close contact. The COVID-19 pandemic led to the sudden implementation of widespread social distancing measures in the United States. There is strong evidence that social distancing measures impact the spread of SARS-CoV-2, and a growing body of research indicates that these measures also decrease the transmission of other respiratory pathogens.

Objective: This study aims to investigate the impact of COVID-19 social distancing mandates on the GI pathogen positivity rates.

Methods: Deidentified GI Panel polymerase chain reaction test results from a routinely collected diagnostic database from January 1, 2019, through August 31, 2020, were analyzed for the GI pathogen positivity percentage. An interrupted time series analysis was performed, using social distancing mandate issue dates as the intervention date. The following 3 target organisms were chosen for the final analysis to represent different primary transmission routes: adenovirus F40 and 41, norovirus GI and GII, and Escherichia coli O157.

Results: In total, 84,223 test results from 9 states were included in the final data set. With the exception of E coli O157 in Kansas, Michigan, and Nebraska, we observed an immediate decrease in positivity percentage during the week of social distancing mandates for all other targets and states. Norovirus GI and GII showed the most notable drop in positivity, whereas E coli O157 appeared to be least impacted by social distancing mandates. Although we acknowledge the analysis has a multiple testing problem, the majority of our significant results showed significance even below the .01 level.

Conclusions: This study aimed to investigate the impact of social distancing mandates for COVID-19 on GI pathogen positivity, and we discovered that social distancing measures in fact decreased GI pathogen positivity initially. The use of similar measures may prove useful in GI pathogen outbreaks. The use of a unique diagnostic database in this study exhibits the potential for its use as a public health surveillance tool.

Keywords: COVID-19; diagnostic database; epidemiology; gastroenteritis; gastrointestinal; outbreak; pathogen outbreak; pathogen transmission; public health; respiratory pathogen; social distancing; surveillance; surveillance tool.